In their most recent reports, which were released today, the Global Growth Slowdown Confirmed by World Bank and OECD; Trade Barriers Impact Investment Flows on July 8, 2025, concur that there has been a significant drop in global growth.
This slowing is directly tied to the deleterious spread of rising trade barriers and their knock-on impact on world investment. The news draws attention to an economic uncertainty on the horizon for companies and countries struggling to navigate a more splintered world order.
The World Bank’s grim forecast indicates a clear slowdown through 2025.
The World Bank published its latest report on the global economy, the Global Economic Prospects, and the general narrative remains a pessimistic one: The institution has just cut its outlook for global GDP growth to 2.3% in 2025, a significant reduction compared to previous expectations.
That would be the weakest rate of non-recessionary growth in about two decades. The key factors highlighted by the World Bank primarily reflect the high contribution of increased trade tensions and policy uncertainty to the slowing of global growth.
“The 0.9 per cent drop is the weakest performance since 2001, excluding global recessions,” Indermit Gill, chief economist of the World Bank Group, said at a press briefing.
The World Bank also said that world growth projections have been downgraded in nearly 70% of economies, a comment that serves to emphasize the widespread slowdown and the vulnerability of the world recovery to trade barriers.
The OECD Highlights the Growth-Stifling Effect of Trade Protectionism
Reinforcing the World Bank’s view, the OECD’s recent Economic Outlook further attests to the global deceleration in growth. Especially striking in the OECD’s examination is the pernicious effect of widening trade barriers and protectionist measures in contributing to the slowdown. The organization now projects that global expansion will decelerate from 3.3 per cent in 2024 to 2.9 per cent in both 2025 and 2026.
These actions are directly affecting business confidence, disturbing global supply chains and, importantly, redirecting or pausing committed investment. “Policy uncertainty today is holding back trade and investment, undermining consumer and business confidence and slowing the pace of global growth, according to the latest OECD Economic Outlook.
There is a need for governments to discuss any concerns with the global trading system in a positive and constructive manner – keeping markets open and retaining the economic benefits of rules-based global trade for competition, innovation, productivity, investment and wealth growth,” it adds.
Global Investment Flows Choke With Trade Tensions
Both reports underscore how the kind of uncertainty introduced by trade frictions is having a chilling effect on investment, especially foreign direct investment (FDI). It was reported that companies are delaying their expansion and startup plans and thinking again about cross-border projects because of uncertain trade policies, increasing costs and possible market access losses.
UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2025 also revealed that global FDI has fallen by 11% in 2024, the second year of consecutive decline (UNCTAD, 2023b), confirming the deepening of the slowdown in the flow of productive capital. For the full World Bank “Global Economic Prospects” report, visit the World Bank’s official publications page.
Lower investment also means slower job creation, less technological innovation and a weaker growth potential for the future ‐ all magnifying a global slump. The decline in global trade and the disintegration of the global value chains that began in the 2010s have led capital to become risk-averse – it is seeking domestic predictability over international contortions in the context of higher protectionism and geoeconomic provocations, from industrial plants to R&D centres.
Outlook and Policy Imperatives
Conditions are still difficult, with the institutions calling for quick and coordinated action. The message from the WB and the OECD is unequivocal; if the current trend of escalating trade restrictions and policy uncertainty continues, the world economy will enter a period of prolonged, anaemic expansion.
The policy implications are clear, centring on the pressing need for unwinding trade frictions and building a more stable global economic environment which will revive investment flows and address the broader global growth deceleration. Multilateral initiatives are the key to returning to a stable and rules-based world trade system. The stability of the world economy depends on international cooperation to steer these choppy economic seas. Sources