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  • As Trade Worries Linger, Edmond de Rothschild AM Prefers European Over US Equities

    As Trade Worries Linger, Edmond de Rothschild AM Prefers European Over US Equities

    Today, Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management (AM), a UK-based company with its headquarters in Paris, revealed a major strategic shift. In its outlook for the second half of the year, AM makes no secret of moving to a stance that is clearly pro-European and shorting US stocks relative to US stocks.

    The move comes amid increasing trade fears and a confusing geopolitical landscape. The firm notes that even as markets around the world continue to gyrate, Europe is becoming a more interesting investment story, relative to the US.

    Why We Are Underweighting US Equities

    Edmond de Rothschild AM’s sceptical view on US stocks is mainly due to the ongoing trade dispute and a murky US policy. This is how Benjamin Melman, Global CIO at Edmond de Rothschild AM, put it: “The US/China negotiations could last a long time, and those with Europe are not going to be simple.

    We have for the past six months been modestly underweight equities, particularly US equities, and in the dollar.” The new US tariffs rising on imports from Japan and South Korea, which will take effect on August 1 unless there are new trade pacts, dramatically demonstrate the erratic US trade policy further.

    Together with worries about the high asset valuations in the US market and policy risk in general, all that feeds into the firm’s prudential stance on US assets with a lesser exposure on their portfolios.

    European Stocks: A “Powerful New Narrative” It was a mixed start to the week, with economic data out of the Eurozone delivering support to the majors.

    Completely opposite to their view of the US market, Edmond de Rothschild AM is responding to an exciting ‘new narrative’ in Europe. “There is a real continent in the world, which is again in profound transformation, on the basis of new political and economic ambitions, and that continent is Africa,” said Caroline Gauthier, co-head of equities.

    There are a number of reasons for this good feeling. The industrial strategy also includes the “Draghi plan” on European competitiveness, which emphasises the need to promote innovation and reform competition law and is viewed as a serious booster.

    And the resurgence of German leadership along with rising defense spending across the continent will mean stronger economic prospects. This regained confidence can be seen in the strong recovery of Eurozone equities in 2025, with a spectacular +12% gain (+25% in USD terms), confirming Europe’s reassertion of its economic fate.

    The firm emphasizes the attractiveness of European small caps, noting the domestic nature of this category is “partly protected from trade-related tensions and dollar volatility” and is central to Europe’s manufacturing base and industrial innovation.

    Portfolio Strategy and Broader Considerations

    In global equities in general, the stance of Edmond de Rothschild AM is still slightly underweight, reflecting an overall cautious perspective in a context of market volatility. The move to bring in European equities is part of its strategy to diversify and to move into alternative asset classes that can still provide some level of resiliency.

    In addition to equities, the firm remains positive about short-term high-yield debt and other forms of fixed income which it deems “safe havens” on the basis of their high carry and economic cycle. Jacques-Aurélien Marcireau, co-head of equities, highlights a refocusing on themes such as resilience and health as the dominant macro investors’ trends that are driving investment in all asset classes around the world in order to build robust, innovative and adaptive portfolios. You can read more about Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management’s investment strategies and outlook on their official website. You can read more about Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management’s investment strategies and outlook on their official website.

    Conclusion

    The short-term outlook by Edmond de Rothschild AM highlights the fact that ongoing trade concerns and a shifting geopolitical environment are forcing investors to rethink conventional market hierarchies.

    The firm’s unique conviction in European equities, with particular emphasis on small caps, reflects a confidence in Europe to offer resilience and attractive investment opportunities in an increasingly fragmented and uncertain global investment landscape.

  • Worldwide Risk Landscape on July 8, 2025: From Geopolitical Tariffs to Disaster Preparedness and Audit Readiness

    Worldwide Risk Landscape on July 8, 2025: From Geopolitical Tariffs to Disaster Preparedness and Audit Readiness

    Worldwide Risk Landscape on July 8, 2025, is characterized by an ever-changing matrix of economic, environmental, and regulatory pressures. Highlights include rising tariff disputes, the necessity of improved disaster response and the ongoing development of audit readiness for small businesses.

    This complex web of threats requires cities and nations to act preemptively to equip themselves with resilience in an ever more uncertain world.

    Geopolitical Tariffs: A New Economic Front

    July 8, 2025 – U.S. President Donald Trump today revealed new 25% import tariffs on Japan and South Korea effective Aug. 1 – if new trade deals are not reached. It comes after a 90-day hiatus on tariffs. It is part of a broader US trade policy announced in September 2025 targeting 14 countries and covering products ranging from 25% to 40%, in a bid to address what the US sees as trade imbalances.

    The announcement has sent immediate ripples through global markets and diplomatic circles, accelerating hands on both Asian allies and US officials to step up negotiations in the days ahead. This new economic front adds another layer of complexity to the global risk landscape, which has the potential to disrupt global supply chains, weigh on investment decisions, and prompt retaliatory measures that further splinter the world’s commerce.

    Disaster Planning As The New Climate Imperative

    Outside the realm of trade, the global risk landscape is increasingly influenced by climate change, rendering disaster preparedness more essential than ever. The natural disasters increase without a pause, more and more frequent and severe ones, bringing a serious threat to the infrastructure, economy and human life.

    Global losses of more than $200 billion were suffered in 2024, reveals recent data. Projections indicate that in 2030 alone, the world will experience some 560 disaster events, meaning a little over 1.5 moderate-to-large disasters per day. Echoing this urgent call, the World Resilient Recovery Conference (WRRC), which took place in Geneva in early June 2025, released its Ten Priority Investments to Ensure Preparedness for Resilient Recovery.

    These actions are intended to bolster resilient recovery and enhance local community leadership in the face of climate-related events, underlining the importance of effective disaster preparedness in addressing more extreme weather and future global resilience. Details on the Ten Priority Investments can be found on ReliefWeb.

    Audit Readiness: Navigating Evolving Compliance

    Audit readiness is no longer only about technology, but it’s also about the changing environment and shifting regulations for businesses. One major trend is the increasing use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in auditing; AI streamlines the process of analysing large data sets, helps identify risks, and detects abnormalities, making the audit process more efficient and accurate.

    This, in turn, requires companies to keep their data clean and available for audits driven by AI. Regulation is also becoming much stricter. The EU’s NIS2 Directive and DORA and operational resilience in 2025 The EU’s NIS2 Directive, designed to boost the cybersecurity of crucial sectors, and DORA, which stands for Digital Operational Resilience Act.

    Which has been applied as of 17th January 2025 exclusively for the financial sector, are introducing strict requirements regarding the management of ICT risks and incidents. In addition, the growing significance of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) compliance management systems in 2025, especially in Europe, requires extensive reporting and internal control.

    This challenge is only made more difficult by a growing risk environment on the cybersecurity front because the surge in ransomware and supply chain attacks obviously requires strong internal controls for audit considerations.

    The Interconnected Risk Matrix: Building Proactive Strategies

    These separate risks are deeply interconnected. When we have geopolitical tension, like the tariffs we just said, and then we go directly to a globally intertwined supply chain, that global supply chain is more subject to the vagaries of natural disasters.

    At the same time, the requirement for IT security and operating robustness to satisfy emerging audit and compliance requirements is simply escalated by these intricate interconnections. Thus, the construction of comprehensive risk management mechanisms that foresee and respond to such complex intractable threats is a key priority.

    To withstand volatility, multinational companies should be proactive in their approaches. Driving international collaboration and technology adoption for resilience and robust compliance are key to long-term corporate resilience and global well-being in the global risk landscape of 2025 and beyond.

  • Global Personal Finance Navigates Inflation, BNPL Trends, and Stable Savings on July 8, 2025

    Global Personal Finance Navigates Inflation, BNPL Trends, and Stable Savings on July 8, 2025

    As of today, July 8, 2025, people face an increasingly convoluted personal finance story, as global personal finance navigates inflation that refuses to go back to normal anywhere around the world; Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) takes off at a blistering rate of speed; and stockpiles of savings continue to fight against economic shifting.

    Together, these ingredients are altering how households manage their budgets, spend and plan for the future. In this article we will give insight into how consumers are adjusting and offer advice from financial professionals on staying financially healthy.

    Exorbitant Inflation on Household Budgets

    The inflation picture as it stands today is still a significant drain on personal wallets. Headline inflation remained elevated above pre-pandemic levels in many economies, at least to date, with the OECD’s most recent data available as of July 3rd, 2025, showing 4.0% in May 2025.

    In other words, the cost of living is still climbing; it’s just doing so at a slower pace than during periods of peak inflation. The direct effect on personal finance is obvious: reduced purchasing power, higher everyday expenses as items like food, fuel and utility bills rise, and a squeeze on discretionary spending.

    This is especially challenging for savers. While nominal savings may be accumulating, their real value after adjusting for inflation is being eroded, keeping one of life’s quests — that of stable, inflation-beating savings — as an uphill journey for households the world over.

    Convenience, popularity, and growing concerns about BNPL

    The popularity of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) continues to skyrocket, with the value of global BNPL payments forecasted to hit US$39.79 billion in 2025 – year-on-year growth is striking. The attraction of the option is the freedom it offers and the illusion of no-interest payments, especially to younger demographics such as Millennials and Gen Z, who are used to working with it for online sales.

    But there is a downside to this convenience. A majority of users regret BNPL – in a recent survey a good 40% of Americans regret after they comprehend the total costs. What’s more, late payments are increasing, with 41% of users of BNPL services reported making a late payment in the last 12 months versus 34% a year ago.

    The downsides to such services include racking up multiple BNPL debts, losing track of payments (almost one-third of users say as much) and the threat to credit scores from missing instalment payments. More statistics on BNPL usage and concerns can be found in the Motley Fool’s 2025 Buy Now, Pay Later Trends Study.

    Developing Financial Resilience: Astute Savings in a Changing Environment

    Finding ways to handle this effectively calls for some smart and practical savings plans. Firstly, people should focus on finding savings accounts with competitive interest rates that can outpace inflation. In India, RBI’s Floating Rate Savings Bonds are still going strong at 8.05% returns for the July-December 2025 period, which stands to trump many conventional bank fixed deposits and give a government-backed, less-risky option for conservative investors.

    Second, the ancient virtues of budgeting and expense tracking are just as important as ever. Knowing where the money’s going is how you start to find potential savings. Thirdly, prioritize debt. High-interest debts such as credit cards should be prioritised for aggressive repayment, and while BNPL payments are usually interest-free, they need to be responsibly managed to avoid late fees and an impact on credit scores.

    And ultimately, consider saving more broadly than money, focusing on longer-term goals, to provide more insulation against the disintegrating effects of inflation.

    Final word

    “The state of personal finance on July 8, 2025, is one heavily influenced by the persistent global inflation attack on household budgets, the two-faced BNPL phenomenon—a lurking convenience or debt risk.”

    In order to attain fiscal wellness in today’s economy, it is essential to actively manage personal finances, which has to do with smart savings plans, a vigilant budgeting system and being mindful of business practices. We would advise readers to check things should their circumstances be in any way complicated, as well as seek professional advice to protect their financial future.

  • Global Economic Outlook Dampened by Trade Protectionism on July 8, 2025; Central Banks Maintain Vigilance

    Global Economic Outlook Dampened by Trade Protectionism on July 8, 2025; Central Banks Maintain Vigilance

    As of its most recent readings, which were published, the Global Economic Outlook Dampened by Trade Protectionism on July 8 stresses the overall impact caused by the increased introduction of trade protectionist measures, so things are not going to get much better anytime soon.

    In this difficult environment, central banks around the world face the dilemma of having to be vigilant while trying to strike the right balance between supporting growth and controlling inflation in a time of greater uncertainty. The tug of war between these forces is charting a treacherous and uncertain course for the world economy.

    The Potential for Global Growth Is Threatened by Protectionism

    Trade protectionism in the form of tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and retaliation is resulting in a bleak global economic outlook. Almost all of the economic leading indicators have released updated projections recently, and they all agree there will be a negative effect on global trade volumes and GDP.

    If we take the World Bank, for example, they forecast global GDP growth to drop to 2.3% for 2025, a substantial revision downwards largely due to rising trade barriers and policy uncertainty. This has resulted in weakened corporate confidence, broken international supply chains and depressed investment.

    Enterprises are suffering from high costs and uncertain market availability, and that combination has quite naturally discouraged cross-border investments. The BIS emphasized that trade-related headwinds are strengthening established trends toward economic balkanization, intensifying a weakening of economic and productivity growth that has now lasted the better part of a decade.

    Central Banks Stay on Alert Despite Conflicting Pressures

    In such an environment, central banks are crucial and are “vigilant” or “closely watching” data and willing to act forcefully. They now face a twin challenge of a slowdown in growth, exacerbated by trade protectionism, that could also push them to ease monetary policy.

    On the other hand, persistent inflationary pressures, possibly exacerbated by trade barriers driving up import costs, prevent them from loosening policy too rapidly. The general theme is one of caution, however, and central banks are taking slightly different stances depending on their own domestic economies.

    Take, for example, the European Central Bank (ECB), which has acknowledged that while disinflation is in progress, the continued intensification of trade pressures complicates the inflation horizons, causing them to adopt a data-dependent approach to politics.

    The vigilance is important as to how trade-offs are balanced to support economic activity and ensure price stability; it can be a difficult one to make. For more on the ECB’s monetary policy and outlook, see the European Central Bank’s official statements and publications.

    Navigating the Delicate Balance: Growth, Inflation, and Policy Uncertainty

    Keeping vigil for central banks, or so it is frequently the case, entails walking a tightrope. Should global growth continue to decelerate because of trade protectionism being sustained, the chorus calling for rate cuts will grow louder.

    Yet if inflation proves more persistent or speeds back up again via supply shocks caused by trade disruptions or higher import prices, rate hikes could still be in play. The uncertainties created by trade protectionism are very challenging when taking such decisions, with little firm ground upon which to base economic projections and policy decisions.

    This uncertainty also applies to financial markets and consumer spending, making the calculus even more complicated. Businesses are reluctant to make job-creating investments, while consumers may put off big purchases, dragging on economic momentum.

    Even more than in the Vietnam era, central banks need to understand the changing landscape and ways in which trade policy affects import prices and overall demand to better achieve their mandates.

    Outlook remains cautious, policy cooperation crucial

    So long as trade protectionism is still on the table, the short-term global economic picture is going to look dim. Meanwhile, international financial companies are also cautious, as risks on the downside are high.

    International cooperation is the key means to solve trade rows. Returning to more market-orientated policies, including encouragement of private investment, could have a substantial positive effect on the economic environment by repairing confidence, supply chains and capital appreciation.

    Central banks are here to stay, adjusting their monetary policy as new data comes in, striving for price stability as well a sustainable growth. It will take their alert and data-oriented approach to navigate economies through such uncertain times, but also global policy cooperation for more resilient market insights and economic outlooks in the future.

  • Global Growth Slowdown Confirmed by World Bank and OECD; Trade Barriers Impact Investment Flows on July 8, 2025

    Global Growth Slowdown Confirmed by World Bank and OECD; Trade Barriers Impact Investment Flows on July 8, 2025

    In their most recent reports, which were released today, the Global Growth Slowdown Confirmed by World Bank and OECD; Trade Barriers Impact Investment Flows on July 8, 2025, concur that there has been a significant drop in global growth.

    This slowing is directly tied to the deleterious spread of rising trade barriers and their knock-on impact on world investment. The news draws attention to an economic uncertainty on the horizon for companies and countries struggling to navigate a more splintered world order.

    The World Bank’s grim forecast indicates a clear slowdown through 2025.

    The World Bank published its latest report on the global economy, the Global Economic Prospects, and the general narrative remains a pessimistic one: The institution has just cut its outlook for global GDP growth to 2.3% in 2025, a significant reduction compared to previous expectations.

    That would be the weakest rate of non-recessionary growth in about two decades. The key factors highlighted by the World Bank primarily reflect the high contribution of increased trade tensions and policy uncertainty to the slowing of global growth.

    “The 0.9 per cent drop is the weakest performance since 2001, excluding global recessions,” Indermit Gill, chief economist of the World Bank Group, said at a press briefing.

    The World Bank also said that world growth projections have been downgraded in nearly 70% of economies, a comment that serves to emphasize the widespread slowdown and the vulnerability of the world recovery to trade barriers.

    The OECD Highlights the Growth-Stifling Effect of Trade Protectionism

    Reinforcing the World Bank’s view, the OECD’s recent Economic Outlook further attests to the global deceleration in growth. Especially striking in the OECD’s examination is the pernicious effect of widening trade barriers and protectionist measures in contributing to the slowdown. The organization now projects that global expansion will decelerate from 3.3 per cent in 2024 to 2.9 per cent in both 2025 and 2026.

    These actions are directly affecting business confidence, disturbing global supply chains and, importantly, redirecting or pausing committed investment. “Policy uncertainty today is holding back trade and investment, undermining consumer and business confidence and slowing the pace of global growth, according to the latest OECD Economic Outlook.

    There is a need for governments to discuss any concerns with the global trading system in a positive and constructive manner – keeping markets open and retaining the economic benefits of rules-based global trade for competition, innovation, productivity, investment and wealth growth,” it adds.

    Global Investment Flows Choke With Trade Tensions

    Both reports underscore how the kind of uncertainty introduced by trade frictions is having a chilling effect on investment, especially foreign direct investment (FDI). It was reported that companies are delaying their expansion and startup plans and thinking again about cross-border projects because of uncertain trade policies, increasing costs and possible market access losses.

    UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2025 also revealed that global FDI has fallen by 11% in 2024, the second year of consecutive decline (UNCTAD, 2023b), confirming the deepening of the slowdown in the flow of productive capital. For the full World Bank “Global Economic Prospects” report, visit the World Bank’s official publications page.

    Lower investment also means slower job creation, less technological innovation and a weaker growth potential for the future ‐ all magnifying a global slump. The decline in global trade and the disintegration of the global value chains that began in the 2010s have led capital to become risk-averse – it is seeking domestic predictability over international contortions in the context of higher protectionism and geoeconomic provocations, from industrial plants to R&D centres.

    Outlook and Policy Imperatives

    Conditions are still difficult, with the institutions calling for quick and coordinated action. The message from the WB and the OECD is unequivocal; if the current trend of escalating trade restrictions and policy uncertainty continues, the world economy will enter a period of prolonged, anaemic expansion.

    The policy implications are clear, centring on the pressing need for unwinding trade frictions and building a more stable global economic environment which will revive investment flows and address the broader global growth deceleration. Multilateral initiatives are the key to returning to a stable and rules-based world trade system. The stability of the world economy depends on international cooperation to steer these choppy economic seas. Sources

  • India Faces US Tariff Deadline on July 9: Geopolitical and Cyber Threats Dominate Risk Landscape in July 2025

    India Faces US Tariff Deadline on July 9: Geopolitical and Cyber Threats Dominate Risk Landscape in July 2025

    Political risk continues to be one of the key issues for the economy, and geopolitical risk hangs over it at a time when India finds itself just over a year away, on July 9, 2025, from a crucial US tariff deadline.

    At the same time, a huge global password leak and the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) relentless fight against cyber fraud reiterate the need for having strong cybersecurity in the financial system and more financial protection for all.

    Impending US Tariff Deadline and Trade Deal Uncertainties

    The Urgent present risk management India The media around the world is facing the impending deadline for a new trade deal on 9 July announced by US President Donald Trump. leading to continued trade wars.

    Although President Trump tweeted on July 6 that “trade deals are moving along very well” and alerted that the imposition of tariffs is on the way, it is not clear if India makes it to any such definitive agreement. The tariffs – ranging from 10% to 50% – were due to kick in on August 1 and could hurt India’s exports and therefore the rupee.

    The continuing talks, notably over US farm products’ access to markets, are tough. India’s inability to nail a fair US trade deal could up the ante on geopolitical risk and bring market volatility.

    Massive Password Leak Signals Heightened Cyber Threat

    As a strong testament to the extent of cyber vulnerabilities, a July 7, 2025 report highlighted a large-scale worldwide leak of passwords, estimated at about 16 billion for use on assorted online accounts. That exposes customers to major risks, from social media hacks to potential bank hacks.

    A strong government advisory tells people to stop reusing passwords and start enabling multi-factor authentication for all online services. This incident reflects the importance for you and me to take our digital hygiene seriously because our own financial security and security as a community depend on it. For more details on this significant password leak and recommended safety measures, see The CSR Journal’s report.

    RBI Proactive Against Financial Fraud

    The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) fight to cut down on banks for combating financial fraud is not showing any signs of slowing down. The DoT’s Financial Fraud Risk Indicator (FRI) tool is being fed into the systems of banks, and this treasure trove of information is more than any trigger that can be programmed into FRI.

    This tech identifies mobile numbers according to whether they belong to the risk of financial fraud and allows banks and UPI platforms to take real-time action to prevent a dubious transaction in the first place.

    HDFC Bank, PhonePe, ICICI Bank and Punjab National Bank are already using FRS, and these numbers exhibit the strict regulatory environment of India in fighting cyber-enabled financial crimes, The Economic Times reported.

    The Complete Solution for a Digital World of Risk

    Beyond immediate threats, holistic risk management is critical for an increasingly digital India. The combination of AI-based early warning systems, zero-trust security models and behavioural analytics is becoming a critical part of financial institutions’ ability to detect and address advanced attacks, such as those that leverage generative AI and deepfakes.

    And, while it’s not directly related to today’s news, the larger conversation about preserving household wealth, especially as it pertains to assets such as gold in the face of price volatility, is another component in the background of the financial protection market.

    The complex risk management in India in July 2025 is characterized by the interplay of global trade dynamics, sophisticated cyber threats and domestic policy responses.

  • RBI Savings Bond Rates Unchanged, Gold & Silver Dip, and ATM Fee Hikes Impact Daily Transactions

    RBI Savings Bond Rates Unchanged, Gold & Silver Dip, and ATM Fee Hikes Impact Daily Transactions

    For those Indians who are responsible for their own financial planning, Monday, July 7, 2025, is a day of stability and new challenges. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has left interest rates on its popular Floating Rate Savings Bonds unchanged, and precious metals including gold and silver have come down.

    At the same time, we can expect an increase in the fees for ATM transactions that will influence our daily banking behaviour.

    Fixed Returns – RBI Floating Rate Savings Bonds

    In a significant update for savers, the RBI has decided that the interest rates on its Floating Rate Savings Bonds (FRSB 2020 (T)) would continue to be at 8.05% for the July 1-December 31, 2025, period.

    This rate, 0.35% higher than the prevailing National Savings Certificate (NSC), provides an attractive and safe investment avenue for those looking for assured returns on the money invested.

    Interest on these bonds is paid twice a year (on 1 January and 1 July). They start at an investment of ₹1,000, and with no cap, they are affordable for different kinds of investors. For official information regarding the RBI Floating Rate Savings Bonds, refer to the Reserve Bank of India’s website.

    Important Considerations for FRSB Investors

    Even though FRSBs are secured instruments, investors have to note that there is a lock-in period of seven years. Early withdrawal is generally limited, but seniors are afforded some leniency based on their age, even if they are penalized.

    It is important to note that the interest income generated by such bonds is fully taxable, and TDS (Tax Deducted at Source) is applicable if the annual interest amount crosses ₹10,000.

    That makes it crucial, then, for investors to consider the tax on investments as part of the overall returns and to incorporate these bonds into their overall financial planning tips.

    Gold and Silver Prices See a Decline

    Gold & Silver: In the commodities market, on July 7, 2025, the value of gold and silver has also declined according to global trends. Prospects for lower demand lifted spot gold prices internationally. On the domestic front, gold prices today in India showed little change as 24-carat gold was being sold at ₹98,993 per 10 grams in the Indian capital, New Delhi, and other major cities.

    Likewise, the silver price today in India also registered a fall to trade at ₹108,370 per kilogram. The pressure on the precious metals may be coming from what appears to be a few global economic signals and some possible headway in an international trade conversation.

    ATM Costs Mount for Daily Transactions

    In a move that will make everyday banking even more expensive, several leading banks like Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, etc., have revised their ATM transaction charges with effect from July 1, 2025. For Axis Bank, for bank customers who exceed the free transaction limit, it has been raised from ₹21 to ₹23.

    These new fees impact different account types and are intended to compensate banks for growing back-office expenses. Heads up – People need to be aware of these changes in order to avoid additional fees or revise their budgeting pointers.

    This Indian personal finance news for July 2025 reminds us that it is still necessary for people to track the markets and banking rules to manage personal finance well.

  • India’s Resilient Economic Growth and Easing Inflation: Aiding RBI Policy Flexibility in July 2025

    India’s Resilient Economic Growth and Easing Inflation: Aiding RBI Policy Flexibility in July 2025

    India remains the world’s fastest-growing large economy, as strong GDP growth accompanies a marked reduction in the rate of inflation. That is a good combination which is giving greater policy flexibility to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to sacrifice higher interest rates for some growth-inducing steps with an optimistic India’s Resilient Economic Growth and Easing Inflation: Aiding RBI Policy Flexibility in July 2025

    Consistent GDP Growth

    The Indian economy remains robust as its real GDP is envisaged to have risen by 6.5 per cent in FY 2024-25, the fastest among the leading global economies. This growth momentum is expected to carry on till FY 2025-26, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said.

    Other global and domestic institutions, such as the United Nations (6.3% in 2025) and the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) (6.4% to 6.7% for FY26), reflect this optimistic note. This ongoing performance underscores India’s structural economic strength, which is needed for overall economic stability in an environment of global vagaries.

    Inflation Hits Lowest Levels in Years

    One important part of this supportive setting is that there has been a great fall in inflation. The year-on-year CPI for May 2025 declined to an impressive 2.82% – the lowest since February 2019. What is more, the Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) has trended upwards by 0.99% in May 2025; the food inflation has been the lowest since October 2021.

    This sharp food price cooling flow, which translates as bumper farm harvests to efficient supply chains, brings dramatic relief to consumers and small businesses and signals a healthy economy. You can find detailed reports on India’s CPI data in The Economic Times.

    The RBI’s Increased Flexibility in Policy

    India’s continued declining inflation view India’s continuing falling inflation outlook gives the RBI more room to tweak its policy. Now, inflation is expected to stay comfortably within its medium-term target of 4%, possibly even falling below that in months to come.

    This will enable RBI to concentrate on the next rounds of growth enablers, such as rate cuts and liquidity measures. The present scenario of low inflation makes it a point to reaffirm the view that the RBI enjoys ample policy flexibility to effectively respond to the changing macroeconomic dynamics.

    Strong External Sector and Reserves

    India’s foreign sector still enjoys good health, further enhancing the country’s general economic stability. Foreign exchange reserves rose to a robust USD 702.78 billion in the week to June 27, 2025, moving closer to their all-time high.

    This comfortable reserve support provides a strong line of defence against shocks and would cover more than 11 months of goods imports. The trade dynamics with the US and its impact on the trade balance are being watched, but the intrinsic export strength (total exports posted an all-time high of USD 824.9 billion in FY2024-25) and steady remittances are continuing to be the foundation for India’s external account.

    Cumulatively, these are factors which illustrate India’s sturdy economic standing in July 2025.

  • Indian Market Caution on July 7, 2025: US Tariff Countdown and SEBI Probe Weigh on Investor Sentiment

    Indian Market Caution on July 7, 2025: US Tariff Countdown and SEBI Probe Weigh on Investor Sentiment

    The Indian Market Caution on July 7, 2025: US Tariff Countdown and SEBI Probe Weigh on Investor Sentiment. Accordingly, when the Nifty and Sensex opened on a flat note, it appeared that investors were nervous over two things in particular – a looming US deadline on tariffs on Indian goods and SEBI’s impact on a market review over suspected market manipulation. This cautious climate requires that wealth accumulation strategies are applied with a strategic approach.

    Nifty and Sensex Remain Muted

    The 50 shares of Nifty were flat in early trade on July 7, 2025 (09:40AM) near the 25,485 level in the opening trade on Monday. The BSE Sensex also was trading nearly flat around 83,400. This flatness, according to financial planners, reflects a market that is cautious, in a hurry-up-and-wait posture for clearer signals on outside and inside pressures. The Nifty trend for July 7, 2025, remains neutral as key uncertainties remain in play, affecting the stock market in India today.

    US-India Trade Tensions Cast a Shadow

    Investment sentiment appears to be reacting to a number of factors, not least of which are the rising trade tensions between the US and India. US President Donald Trump said on Sunday, July 6, that the new trade deals are “coming along very well,” announcing further possible USD products that may face tariffs if the US issues its USD 300 bn worth of Chinese goods levies on July 9.

    Such tariffs, between 10% and 50%, and expected to be implemented from August 1, are a big threat to Indian exports. India has not so far been exempted explicitly in any final agreement, which would have made such specific trade measures redundant. This constant ambiguity is one of the reasons that the broader market is being so cautious right now, several market watchers have pointed out.

    SEBI Probe Adds to Domestic Concerns

    At the domestic level, the financial market is also reeling under the aftereffects of SEBI’s report accusing US trading firm Jane Street of manipulative trading in Indian equity markets. Although SEBI has simply blocked Jane Street from trading in Indian markets and ordered the disgorgement of illegal gains, the broader implications of the investigation on both regulatory enforcement and market reputability have grabbed attention.

    This may temporarily affect the trading volume of derivatives and the stock prices of a few exchanges and brokerages. But, according to experts such as VK Vijayakumar of Geojit Financial Services, such short-term regulatory challenges are unlikely to disrupt the long-term positive trend for the broader market.

    Early Market Performers and Losers

    While thin on the whole, a handful of specific issues saw significant action early. FMCG major Hindustan Unilever, too, was trading with gains of around 1.86% at ₹2,382.80. Asian Paints, too, rose 1.27 per cent to ₹2,455.00. On the other hand, the loss leaders led by Bharat Electronics lost 2.07 per cent at ₹418.70, probably due to profit booking and/or sectoral negative information flows.

    The divergent moves indicate that stock-specific action will continue to pan out even as the market grapples with a volatile environment driven by domestic macro and global cues. For real-time stock updates, you can check Angel One’s live blog for specific companies like Bharat Electronics.

  • US Tariff Deadline Looms for India on July 9: Trade Deal Critical for Rupee Stability and External Finances

    US Tariff Deadline Looms for India on July 9: Trade Deal Critical for Rupee Stability and External Finances

    As it prepares for a US tariff deadline looming for India on July 9, it is at a crossroads as crucial trade talks with the United States take a crucial turn. The result of these discussions will have significant importance for the stability of the rupee and the overall external finances of the country and are therefore an important focus for risk mitigation in India in the days ahead.

    Crucial US Tariff Deadline Approaching

    As of July 4, 2025, India and the US are in the throes of an extremely intense dialogue to seal a trade deal before US President Donald Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline.

    The inability to reach a sensible deal, or visible progress to that effect, could prove to be a huge strain on the INR and the external balance of the country. This is also one of the single greatest geopolitical risks being watched by the markets.

    Most expect a positive result, given the mutual economic and geopolitical interests at stake, but it’s hard to have confidence in that. And that’s a major market risk.

    One of the contentious points of negotiations is India’s access to the market for genetically modified (GM) crops. A new option being considered is a “self-certification” mechanism for US exporters who will have to meet India’s GM-free mandate but with a sense of comfort on food safety.

    The writings also pertain to India’s food safety protocols under the ‘certification’ and ‘registration’ of certain ‘high-risk’ imports such as dairy, meat, poultry, fish and infant foods.

    Improving National Security by Buying Locally

    Also, as a boost to the national financial security and to ensure greater self-reliance in the country, the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC), chaired by Raksha Mantri Rajnath Singh, here today accorded approval for capital acquisition proposals valued at over 1.05 lakh crore on 03 Jul 2025.

    All these acquisitions are under the ‘Buy (Indian-IDDM)’ category, which prioritises indigenisation of design, development and manufacturing. This policy move is in line with the government’s thrust on defence sector self-reliance.

    These cleared purchases would contain vital things like Armoured Recovery Vehicles, Electronic Warfare Systems, and Integrated Common Inventory Management Systems for the tri-services besides surface-to-air missiles.

    For the Navy, the acquisitions include moored mines, mine countermeasure vessels, super rapid gun mounts and submersible autonomous vehicles.

    These indigenised defence procurement plans, once executed, will improve the mobility, air defence and logistical capabilities of the Armed Forces on the one hand and, on the other, give a significant fillip to the country’s indigenous defence manufacturing environment. You can find the official press release from the Press Information Bureau (PIB) regarding these approvals.

    Rupee Performance and External Resilience

    The Indian rupee Strong rupee The Indian rupee opened flat against the US dollar on June 30, 2025, at ₹85.48, having registered its best weekly gain since January 2023.

    This stability was largely supported by tumbling global crude prices and détente in West Asian geopolitics. India stands to gain, with lower oil prices helping to cut its import bill and support the current account, key to external finances in India.

    Active management of currency volatility by the RBI, including buying dollars at key levels, also helps maintain order in the markets and ensures that there are enough reserves for the pots of the financial protection that India has erected for itself against external shocks.

    A combination of international trade chop and change, strong domestic defence and central bank initiatives exemplifies the multi-dimensional nature of India’s risk management in times of global and home-brewed challenges.