Category: News

NVIDIA and AMD hit record highs after bullish Q2 earnings reports

Chip behemoths NVIDIA and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are getting frothy with investor excitement, both seeing record stock prices after soaring Q2 2025 financial results.

The strong numbers highlight ongoing strong demand for their high-performance computing and AI-driven technologies, particularly in the data centre and artificial intelligence markets, which are both seeing strong growth.

NVIDIA’s Reign Of Dominance Carries Over To Record Data Center Revenue

NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) – the AI-chip leader – crushed its second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings. The company reported record quarterly revenue of $30.0 billion, representing a huge 122 per cent rise from the same quarter a year ago and a hefty 15 per cent increase from the prior quarter.

That jump was powered largely by its data centre segment, which reported record revenue of $26.3 billion, a 154% increase from a year earlier. CEO Jensen Huang discussing the sustained high demand for NVIDIA’s Hopper architecture and “amazing” enthusiasm for its upcoming Blackwell platform.

He said the world’s datacentres are “doing a full-on refresh of the computing stack with accelerated computing and AI”, with NVIDIA on the edge of that upgrade. It also noted robust adoption of its Spectrum-X Ethernet networking platform for AI and significant scaling of its NVIDIA AI Enterprise software, indicating capabilities as a full-stack platform provider.

NVIDIA’s similar stock run – up 88% from an early-April low and 20% from the beginning of 2025 – has it now briefly pushing past a $4 trillion market cap. Analysts remain bullish, pointing to still strong demand for its GPUs as big tech companies plough ahead on plans to build out AI infrastructure.

AMD’s Strategic Investment in AI and Data Centers Is Paying Off

Well, surprisingly not to be outdone, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) also had a strong performance for the quarter ended 2Q 2025 – coming out better than what Wall Street was looking for. Although individual Q2 2025 results are usually released in early August (in accordance with their previously announced August 5th schedule), the bullish sentiment is due to robust Q1 results and hopeful forward guidance that shot the stock to all-time high territory.

A big driver has been AMD’s focus on expanding its product portfolio and market presence in AI and data centre technologies. Its data centre small business segment has also enjoyed robust year-over-year growth on the back of the rollout of AMD Instinct AI accelerators and robust sales of its EPYC CPUs. Despite continuing headwinds like export controls in a few markets, AMD has shown that it can win share in key markets.

Investor confidence that the company can execute on its vision, especially given strong customer interest in new products, has returned. AMD’s share price has also enjoyed impressive gains, with the markets clearly buying into its long-term growth trajectory in the cutthroat chip industry.

AI Demand Fuels Semiconductor Boom

That both NVIDIA and AMD are trading at all-time highs is a reminder of the ravenous global hunger for modern semiconductor technology, especially the sort that fuels AI.

As companies around the world spend heavily on generative AI, high-performance computing, and data centre infrastructure, the two powerhouse chip makers are well positioned to capture much of that market and innovate in the years ahead.

This is the continuation of that secular trend I wrote about here and here. (Look, if you haven’t been a believer in semiconductors, you haven’t been paying attention.)

July 11, 2025
New Biden administration plan expands debt forgiveness for 3 million borrowers

Millions of Americans with student loan debt are poised to receive huge relief after the new Biden administration on Tuesday announced that the Department of Education would significantly expand its debt relief efforts.

With the plan, an estimated 3 million borrowers are expected to see their debt forgiven, extending current programmes and fixing past administrative errors to lay out a clear way for people to attain financial freedom.

Broadening the Reach of Relief

This new release from the Department of Education offers further evidence of a sustained effort to provide relief for the student loan crisis that has affected millions of families.

The revised programme centres on a number of core components, all intended to streamline the forgiveness process and address borrowers who faced barriers or didn’t know they were eligible.

An essential element of this approach is to build on our current systems, such as Income-Driven Repayment (IDR) plans and Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF). The department has taken aggressive action to identify these borrowers and provide relief to them automatically, even though their forgiveness was not automatically granted as a result of errors by the subcontracts.

These are people who have paid for 20 or 25 years, depending on their loan type, and are beginning to see their remaining balances zeroed out.

Addressing Public Service and Hardship

The plan also hits public servants hard. Although the Public Service Loan Forgiveness programme has offered a helping hand to more than a million borrowers, the details of how it was previously run have left many borrowers angry and confused.

This new expansion seeks to simplify the process and make sure that qualifying payments by teachers, nurses, government workers and other public service workers are correctly recorded, driving more rapid forgiveness after 10 years of service.

The administration is also targeting borrowers who are suffering from financial hardship and borrowers who were exploited by predatory institutions.

Although it is still unclear about new categories for “hardship relief”, the aim is to give the Secretary of Education more discretion in cancelling the debt of borrowers with serious financial planning, which makes repayment impracticable.

That includes continuing relief for students whose schools collapsed or engaged in deceptive practices.

The Role of the SAVE Plan

One of the key pillars enabling all of this greater relief is the Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) Plan. The SAVE Plan has been challenged in court, and parts of it have been suspended as a result of the litigation, but the administration is implementing other parts of the plan that are not affected by court orders.

The SAVE plan reduces monthly payments substantially for many borrowers as a percentage of their income and the number of people in their family, and for those with lower initial loan balances, it offers forgiveness in as few as 10 years.

The continued work to stand up SAVE, in the midst of a legal fight, is crucial to helping millions of people in repayment manage and ultimately obtain forgiveness.

Effects on Borrowers and the Economy

For the 3 million borrowers affected, this expansion means less financial strain, more take-home pay, and the freedom to work toward other milestones in life, like purchasing a home or saving for retirement.

The action was also expected to have broader economic benefits as it encourages consumer spending while eliminating debt that has been a drag on economic growth. The Biden administration says that these moves are part of an overall strategy to fix a “broken” system of student loans, making good on the promise of higher education as a path to opportunity and not crushing debt.

Although the student loan terrain is not static, this newest plan represents a significant development in relieving those who need it most.

July 11, 2025
New EU laws mandate companies to report climate vulnerability by 2026
The time has come for new EU laws mandate companies to not only make a business case for sustainability but also to focus on a new campaign for (climate) transparency.

While investors already appreciate the strong correlation between good sustainability performance and good financial planning, the European Union is driving home this point by introducing forceful legislation that compels a more complete and open assessment of companies’ climate exposure.

Starting in 2026, more types of businesses will be mandated to disclose how climate change affects their businesses and the extent to which their operations contribute to climate risks, a huge step forward for corporate climate accountability.

The CSRD is in the Spotlight

This is accounted for by the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), which has been effective from January 2024. While the first reports for some large firms date back to financial year 2024 (reports published in 2025), the number grows significantly in number in 2026 (for FY 25) and will include a much larger sample of firms.

That means all big firms (of a certain level of employees, balance sheet, or revenue) operating in the EU. Queensland Listed Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) will also report from the 2027 calendar year with a 2-year deferral power.

The ultimate objective of the CSRD is to bring sustainability reporting on par with financial reporting. It requires wide-reaching reporting on environmental, social and governance information (ESG), beyond that which was previously covered by the Non-Financial Reporting Directive (NFRD).

“Double Materiality” and Climate Risks

Central to the CSRD and particularly pertinent in the climate vulnerability context is the notion of “double materiality”. This forces companies to report in two places:
- Impact Materiality: The influence of the company’s books and records on the environment/people (e.g., its carbon emissions, pollination).
- Materiality for Financial Considerations: The company’s exposure to material financial risks and opportunities for how sustainability issues, such as climate change.
Under this structure, companies are to identify and assess their exposure to different climate risks, namely:
- Physical risks: These are the direct effects of climate change, including acute catastrophes like floods, wildfires and extreme heat, as well as more chronic changes like sea-level rise and altered precipitation patterns. Businesses will also have to consider how those could impact their assets, operations and supply chains.
- Transition risks: These are related to the move toward a low-carbon economy, including policy changes (e.g., carbon pricing, tighter emissions regulations), technology developments (e.g., outdated high-carbon assets), market forces (e.g., consumer preferences favouring sustainable products) and reputational considerations.
- Streamlining Disclosures: European Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS) With a proposal to establish an EU non-financial reporting directive written in the sand, a new system is in the makings for mandatory European climate, environmental and social disclosures (ESG, sustainability report). Copyright 2021 Eagle Alpha This report was produced by Eagle Alpha, a data and analytics firm that provides investors early access to market-moving insights.
In order to have a level playing field and a fair comparison, companies under the CSRD should report in accordance with European Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS).

Developed by the European Financial Reporting Advisory Group (EFRAG), these’ve detailed standards which provide a comprehensive guidance for reporting on a broad set of ESG topics, with specific requirements for climate-related disclosures (ESRS E1 – Climate Change).

Companies will have to decide their climate transition plans, targets for reducing emissions (including “Scope 3” emissions emanating from their entire value chain) and strategies for building resilience to the physical effects of climate change.

And that will take proactive data collection and scenario analysis, with transparent disclosure of climate-related governance, strategy, risk management and performance metrics.

Driving Transparency and Resilience

The EU New Mandate aims to offer market participants, including investors, consumers, companies, and policymakers, transparent, comparable, and robust indicators to measure companies’ sustainability performance and their resilience to climate risks.

It aims to avoid “greenwashing” and direct investment into genuinely sustainable economic activities while drawing in line with the wider objectives of the European Green Deal and the EU Taxonomy for sustainable finance.

While implementation will require substantial effort and investment from the business community, it should encourage greater responsibility and innovation to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change and help support the construction of a more resilient and sustainable European economy.
July 11, 2025
The UAE is No Longer a Financial Risk in Europe’s Eyes: Delisting from AML/CFT High-Risk List Boosts Confidence

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been removed from the European Union’s list of problematic states in terms of its financial regime for money laundering and terrorist financing (AML/CFT).

This long-awaited removal, officially approved by the European Parliament on July 10, 2025, is further proof of the strong commitment of the EU toward the UAE’s efforts regarding fighting financial crimes and its adoption of international standards.

A Comprehensive Turnaround

The move follows a year of scrutiny and a raft of reforms carried out by the UAE. The country was originally put on the grey list of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) in 2022, which subsequently led the EU to place the UAE itself on its list of high-risk states in March 2023. These classifications subjected EU financial institutions working with Emirati entities to higher due diligence levels that made transactions slower, costlier and damaging for reputations.

The UAE reacted strongly and quickly, however. The country undertook a comprehensive revision of its AML/CFT regime under the instructions of leadership.

This included various legislation, new regulations, substantial fines against non-compliant parties, and stepping up enforcement in high-risk sectors, including real estate, gold and precious metals, and corporate services providers.

These proactive initiatives led the FATF to remove the UAE from its grey list in September 2024, noting “significant progress” in several compliance-specific areas.

Tangible Benefits for European Business

For the EU, the decision to delist matters not only symbolically, but also in concrete and practical terms for European businesses and investors. EU banks and companies will also be able to stop carrying out additional due diligence on Emirati clients and transactions.

These cuts in red tape will result in fewer compliance costs, shorter timeframes for the transaction, and improved movement of capital between the jurisdictions. The shift is likely to restore a great deal of market confidence for overseas investors, particularly in banking, fintech and property.

With the move, the profile of the UAE as a secure and transparent place for foreign direct investment will be elevated yet further. This comes as good news for businesses planning to set up in the UAE that are looking at smoother sailing with less red tape to navigate.

Creating Opportunities for More Fulfilling Relationships

Outside of finance, the delisting will also help lift trade negotiations between the EU and the UAE. The UAE’s earlier listing on the high-risk register had complicated discussions about a bilateral free trade agreement.

Its withdrawal leaves more room for extreme conservatives to have a deeper discussion on macro policy, including energy, AI, digital services, raw materials and other strategic sectors, so as to further strengthen economic cooperation and wrapped development.

As Minister Al Sayegh said, “We are thrilled to unlock the full potential that exists between the UAE and the EU as we build toward an even closer constructive relationship, with greater prosperity and collective security for our regions and nations.”

Continued Vigilance

As the UAE marks this major achievement, it has not lost sight of the fact that it will not be easy to uphold a strong AML/CFT framework. The jurisdiction remains steadfast in its ongoing development of its protections to combat the progression of threats, such as those involving virtual assets and multi-jurisdictional money laundering.

This delisting reflects the UAE’s commitment toward safeguarding the global financial system against such risks, as well as demonstrating the country as a secure and dependable partner for international exchanges.

July 10, 2025
⁠Millennials say they need $847,000 to feel ‘comfortable’ financially. Here’s how much Gen Z, Gen X and boomers want.

New York – What does it take to reach the lofty goal of feeling “financially comfortable”? That elusive figure varies widely by generation, the survey found, with Millennials saying they’ll need an impressive $847,000 to feel secure. This figure is higher than the national average and exposes the differing financial hopes and circumstances of varying generations.

The most recent Charles Schwab Modern Wealth Survey 2025 (published July 9, 2025) makes that generation gap plain, detailing the net worth each group thinks is needed to feel financially secure. The average American now estimates it takes $839,000 to be financially comfortable, more than the $778,000 of last year.

Millennials Leading the Pack

For the most part, Millennials (29 to 44 years old, in this case) are looking for the highest comfort level. Their request for $847,000 is symbolic of a generation wrestling with such seismic economic forces as student loan debt, escalating housing costs and inflationary pressures, all while also carving out their own paths in the workplace and at home.

Their own journeys into work in the aftermath of the financial meltdown of 2008 may also give them a different sense of how much capital it takes to achieve security.

Gen Z: Lower Threshold, More Positive

And Gen Z (ages 21-28) has set the leanest bar for financial comfort, saying they need $329,000. Gen Z may be dealing with their own economic issues – however, there’s a lot of optimism coursing through this generation.

43 per cent of Gen Z and 42 per cent of Millennials think they will become wealthy (or already are), at rates far higher than other generations. In addition, this younger generation is more likely to have written down their financial plans, suggesting that they approach financial wellness more consciously even though they are less comfortable.

n X and Boomers: Different Needs, Greater Averages

Generation X, also known as the sandwich generation because many in that age group support children and ageing parents, says it needs $783,000 to feel financially well. This number is a bit lower than the national average, but 2 million people is still a tonne of people.

And Baby Boomers (ages 61-77), most of whom are approaching or are in retirement, believe that they need surprisingly the highest amount among all generations to feel comfortable: $943,000. They do this because they want to ensure they live a financially comfortable retirement in the face of spiralling medical costs and longer lives.

Beyond the Numbers: Defining Wealth

The survey also looked at what Americans think is “wealthy” and found it to be much more than a number. No comment about your physical or mental health or personal relationships: Unfortunately, while the average net worth to feel “wealthy” is $2.3 million by 2025 (or so think the survey-takers), they also place just as much weight on happiness (45%), physical health (37%), mental health (32%), and strong personal relationships!

The changing definitions of financial comfort from generation to generation illustrate how economic security is anything but static in a shifting world. The actual numbers might be different, but the need to be secure in one’s position and to be able to live without constant financial anxiety is universal.

July 10, 2025
Global Economy Set for Weakest Run Since 2008 Outside of Recessions

Washington, D.C. The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report predicts that this year will see the world economy slow to its weakest level since the 2008 financial crisis, but that a global recession can be prevented if rising trade disputes are settled.

Released on June 10, 2025, the sobering outlook points to widespread economic downgrades and a dire outlook for the remainder of the decade, particularly for developing economies.

A Decade of Reduced Development

Worldwide growth is poised to decelerate to 2.3 per cent by 2025, a shade higher than half a point below its original forecast at the end of last year. It is not being predicted that there will be a full-blown global recession – but if forecasts prove accurate for the next two years.

The average global expansion in the first seven of the 2020s would be slower than in any decade since the 1960s. This extended period of sluggish growth implies that headwinds for global economic dynamism remain entrenched.

Causes of the Recession

Elevated trade tensions and policy uncertainty are the main factors in the gloomy sentiment. The report indirectly points to an increase in trade barriers – such as tariffs – that have increased costs and prompted retaliatory steps around the world.

It’s holding back investment and demand for capital goods, which account for over a quarter of aggregate demand. There are other issues beyond trade, including tighter labour markets driving inflation and a slowdown in global trade volumes, at work, too. Investment growth, meanwhile, has also decelerated despite record high levels of global debt.

Impact on Developing Economies

The slowing is especially troubling for emerging economies. Average annual growth within these countries has steadily ratcheted down over the past three decades, from north of 6% in the 2000s to below 4% in the 2020s.

This trend reflects the fall in world trade. The report forecasts a deceleration this year in almost 60% of all developing economies; their rate of growth is unlikely to exceed 3.8% in 2025. This is more than a percentage point lower than the decade average. Slower growth mechanically undermines the ability of these countries to generate job creation, extreme poverty reduction and per capita income convergence with the advanced world.

Average per capita income in developing countries is expected to grow by 2.9% in 2025 – 1.1 percentage points lower than the average of the twenty-first years of the century. But the World Bank cautioned that to the extent that developing economies (excluding China) grow at a projected 4% GDP rate in 2027, these and other countries would need another 20 years to recover their pre-pandemic growth trajectory.

Path Forward: Cooperation and Reform

The World Bank is calling on policymakers to act decisively to help to combat these risks. Wrapping up current trade disputes, for example, by cutting tariffs to half of their level in May 2025, would raise global GDP by an average of 0.2 percentage points in 2025 and 2026. The report urges renewed progress on integration with partners, further pro-growth reforms and strengthening fiscal resilience.

“Dialogue between the major economies could lead to a more stable and prosperous path for the world economy”, said World Bank Group Chief Economist Indermit Gill, who added that a cooperative workout is necessary more than ever, and the world urgently needs to cut down on trade barriers and policy ambiguity.

“For the developing countries, the report recommends that investment and trade links should be fostered, diversified trade should be sought and domestic revenues mobilised and customised to spend more on vulnerable households.

The message is both stark: the challenges are immense – but collective action and reforms that are strategic can still help guide the world economy to a more resilient and equitable future.

July 10, 2025
FAO Investment Days 2025 Focuses on Boosting Agrifood System Investments to Create More and Better Jobs Globally

ROME, Italy – Agrifood systems are the basis of global workers, currently providing employment for about 40% of the population. The result is an estimated 1.2 billion young people who will enter the workforce in the next decade and a growing consensus of the critical need for greater and smarter investment in these systems.

That was the loud and clear cry from the 13th edition of the annual FAO Investment Days 2025, a two-day forum from 9 to 10 July on the theme “Investing for More and Better Agrifood Jobs”. The event underscored the great potential of agrifood systems to help meet the rising challenge of youth employment and to drive sustainable development globally.

Why FAO Investment Days 2025?

Organized within the frame of the FAO Investment Days 2025, the Summit was an essential platform that congregated stakeholders from different backgrounds: forward-looking minds, successful entrepreneurs, innovators engaged in production and both public and private investors from all over the world.

They had a common objective: to jointly reflect around specific trajectories and proposals for action so as to transform agrifood systems into solid drivers of inclusive growth and decent work. The forum provided a forum for rich discussion, shared experiences and exchanged best practices on how investing now can change the future for rural and urban young people.

Key Focus Areas and Themes

Deep-dive discussions during FAO Investment Days 2025 did just that, examining the complex landscape of agrifood employment in developing countries. Themes discussed included the critical role of productivity growth from technology utilization and environmentally sustainable activities; the implications of demographic change for labour supply and demand; and the dynamics of labour migration within and between borders.

Access to finance for smallholder farmers and agribusinesses, especially for youth-led projects, was a common theme, as was the changing skills requirement amid rapid technology improvements. Participants also considered supportive policies and enabling environments, such as strong legal protection and streamlined regulation, as actively promoting job creation and innovation.

An important thrust was to promote local value addition and enterprise development through agrifood value chains, which have great potential for providing decent employment, particularly for youth.

Statements from Key Figures

“The distance between the youth labour market and the constraints it faces in the job market is simply alarming,” said FAO Director-General QU Dongyu, adding that “we need to think bigger and deeper” to reactivate the “we reach time urgent” to reach the youth labour market.

He pointed out the FAO remained committed to linking agricultural producers, rural entrepreneurs and agribusinesses with the financing and markets they need to build resilience in fragile communities and foster sustainable growth.

Relevant FAO Work and Reports

Key attention was also brought to the lasting commemoration of FAO’s commitment to investing in agrifood systems during the event. The FAO Investment Centre has a proven track record and is celebrating 60 years of successful operations.

Last year alone, the Centre supported the development of 51 public investment projects across 36 countries, worth a total of $7.3 billion, and ongoing projects worth more than $49.5 billion. One recent significant FAO report, “The State of Youth in Agrifood Systems”, offered a stark context for the talks.

The report exposed that 44% of working youths globally are working in agrifood systems. It pointed out that more than 20% of the world’s 1.3 billion young people (15-24) are currently classified as not in employment, training or education (NEET), and that young women are twice as likely to be NEET in comparison to young men.

The report’s conclusions estimate the creation of only some 400mn new jobs in all sectors over the coming ten years, a figure that pales in comparison to the swelling number of young people who will soon need a job. This wide chasm sounds the call to interventions. Most significantly, the report indicates that with smart interventions, agrifood systems alone could generate 87 million new jobs.

Potential Impact and Forward-Looking Statement

As Investment Days 2025 came to an end, the message of investment strategies and inclusive action rang true among the participants. The forum confirmed (once more) that the transformation of our agrifood systems is not only an economic must but a profound societal imperative.

In doing so, we pave the way to a future that is more food secure, more resilient, and more prosperous for all.” “Through building sustainable growth, boosting productivity and working to provide more and better jobs to the increasing population of young people, we can leave behind a more food-secure and more prosperous future for everyone.

The commitment offered today shows the world’s determination to unlock the great potential of agrifood systems to respond to very real job opportunities and make the world a place where every young person can find their place.

July 10, 2025
Global Trade Update (July 2025): Global trade endures policy changes and geoeconomic risks

Consider the most recent UNCTAD Global Trade Update is showing global trade growing by about $300 billion during the first six months of the year. But this growth is swamped by continuing policy uncertainty and rising geoeconomic risks.

The report, which includes commentary from the WTO, details new US duties, escalating trade imbalances, and the growth of digital market dominance as leading drivers of global trade in the second half of 2025. Decisions for businesses and policy are challenged by a complicated environment that requires flexibility and strategic robustness.

What Did Industry 2025 Trade Look Like: Growth Obscured by Turbulence

In the first half of the year, world trade increased by $300 billion, a modest increase in an environment of continued volatility. UNCTAD growth rates were 1.5% in Q1 and forecasted to be 2% in Q2.

Trade in services remained a critical engine, growing by 9% in the past four quarters, showing its resilience. It is important to note that with the total value of trade, the overall volumes of trade, which increased by only 1%, this implies that there were significant price increases contributing to the total value of the trade.

There was a regional reversal, with advanced economies outperforming emerging markets. The United States recorded strong import growth of 14 per cent, and the European Union saw a 6 per cent increase in exports. By contrast, trade within the South-South also stalled even though growth within Africa was robust.

The report also emphasized deepening trade disequilibria, as the US trade deficit expanded and China and the EU registered increased surpluses, representing structural changes in global trade flows.

Policy Alterations: U.S. tariffs spark decline in global trade stability.

Trade fragmentation is flaring up, destabilising the global system, with recent trade policy changes, led by the United States, being the triggering event. U.S. President Donald Trump formally recommended new 25% tariffs on Japanese and South Korean imports to take effect on August 1 unless new trade deals are drawn up. This follows a wider US trade policy that has impacted 14 countries since April.

This belligerent approach mirrors previous warnings from the WTO, which revised down, in April 2025, its estimate for the global volume of goods trade to fall by 0.2% in 2025. The biggest risks to the global economy, it said, are the full restoration of these “reciprocal tariffs” and the potential for further conflict that could drive an even steeper 1.5% decline in global trade.

Such US tariffs and potential countermeasures carry a high risk of trade dispersion, to the detriment of close-knit production chains that could even destabilize supply chains globally. These protectionist pressures are being compounded by the growth of domestic subsidies and protectionist industrial policies. For detailed analysis on the WTO’s revised trade outlook due to tariff escalations, refer to this EFG International report.

Geoeconomic Risk and the Shifting Digital Market

Beyond the more immediate effects of tariffs, the UNCTAD report highlights a wider range of geoeconomic risks affecting the global trade outlook. Policy uncertainty, reinforced by the backdrop of geopolitical tensions and realignments of global power, maintains an uncertain business environment. Indications of a slowdown in the world economy also reinforce this cautious approach.

A new strand in the focus of the UNCTAD report is the increasing concentration in digital markets. The leading five multinational digital firms now control a whopping 48% of the world’s sales, prompting concerns over competition and consumer welfare.

Such dominance has already begun to trickle into government regulation and shifts in trade policy with respect to digital technologies. Despite this difficult task, there are positive indicators of new forms of resilience, such as improving freight indices and stepping up regional integration efforts.

Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty for Resilience

The Great Trade Review (July 2025) features an era of high economic uncertainty and the necessity of adaptation.

“Resiliency in global trade will be determined to a great extent by ‘policy clarity, geoeconomic events, and supply chain adaptability’ in the second half of 2025 as countries and firms find their way through the ever-changing and complex risk environment,” Boustany reported.

July 9, 2025
Trump threatens to impose up to 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals ‘very soon’

In a major decision announced Tuesday, July 8, 2025, President Donald Trump said his administration plans to levy tariffs of as much as 200% on pharmaceuticals imported into the U.S., and implementation of the levies could occur “very shortly” and be implemented after about a yearlong transition period.

This is a provocative initiative to encourage domestic drug manufacturing and lessen dependence on overseas supply chains for national security reasons. The threat sent an immediate chill through the global pharmaceutical industry and led to concerns that there could be effects on drug prices for American consumers.

The Tariff Threat: Details and Context

President Trump directly indicated that his administration would “reshore” the manufacturing of drugs to the United States. At a Cabinet meeting, he announced, “We’ll be announcing something on pharmaceuticals soon.”

He, however, said the tariff would perhaps be set “at a very high rate, like 200%,” and allowed a period of adjustment — “We’re going to give people about a year, year and a half to come in, and after that they’re going to be tariffed if they have to bring the pharmaceuticals into the country.”

This announcement comes after a probe of drug imports was launched in mid-April 2025, according to Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, authorising tariffs on national security grounds. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said investigations into both pharmaceutical and chip imports are set to end at the end of July.

This threat is part of a larger package of recent tariffs declared by the Trump administration – which also includes 50% tariffs on copper imports and a new round of “reciprocal tariffs” on 14 countries – that are set to be implemented on August 1, 2025, unless new trade agreements are negotiated.

Dependence on Foreign Pharmaceutical Supply Chains

The relevance of these suggested tariffs is that the United States is heavily dependent on international supply chains for its medicines. The US pharma industry imports a lot, especially the Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) and generic finished drugs. The US imported approximately $234 billion worth of medicinal and pharmaceutical products in 2024.

The largest suppliers include Ireland, Switzerland, Germany, Singapore, and India by value. On the other hand, by value, China and India remain the largest suppliers, with a combined share of 57.6% in the drug import total in 2023. China alone is a major supplier for a number of critical drugs, and most imports for medicines like ibuprofen, hydrocortisone and penicillin rely on the country.

The administration’s justification for these tariffs is a concern that this large reliance on other countries, particularly for life-saving drugs, is actually a major national security vulnerability.

Potential Effects: Prices, Supply, and Industry Reaction

The fallout over the 200% tariff on pharmaceutical imports is feared to be the main drawback. The most immediate and farthest-reaching effect would be a sharp increase in drug prices for American consumers, especially for generic and lifesaving drugs that depend on these imports.

Even if companies can quickly switch to domestic manufacturing or find new, tariff-free sources, such a sharp tariff could also result in widespread supply chain disruptions and exacerbate drug shortages that already plague the United States.

Some drug manufacturers had already started announcing plans for US production ahead of policy changes, albeit before President Trump took office, a trend which these new tariffs are sure to accelerate.

Pharma shares, especially Indian drug makers with a prominent US presence such as Lupin, Sun Pharma and Dr. Reddy’s, closed mixed on Wednesday after the news was reported, reflecting the overall market uncertainty.

Yet moving complex pharmaceutical production would be costly and time-consuming, making it next to impossible for the industry.

Outlook and Policy Path Forward

President Trump’s overt threat to impose steep pharmaceutical tariffs opens a new chapter in his trade agenda, which is set on a sweeping remake of the United States’ drug supply chain.

While the precise extent to which the industry will be affected by any proposed policy remains uncertain, it is undoubtable that the administration’s commitment to increasing domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing and decreasing reliance on exports highlights the urgent need for global pharmaceutical companies to focus on future prospects of the pharmaceuticals in the U.S. market. More on the Section 232 investigation into pharmaceutical imports can be found in this DLA Piper insight.

July 9, 2025
China CPI inflation rises marginally in June, PPI shrinks for 33rd month

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) today, July 9, 2025, released its latest inflation figures, painting a mixed economic picture. The China CPI inflation saw a marginal 0.1% year-on-year rise in June, reversing four months of declines.

However, the China PPI (Producer Price Index) continued its prolonged slump, contracting by 3.6% year-on-year, marking the 33rd consecutive month of shrinkage at the factory gate. This divergence highlights the ongoing challenge for policymakers: stimulating domestic demand to address deflationary pressures while managing industrial overcapacity.

CPI’s Marginal Rebound: A Glimmer of Hope?

Consumer prices in China edged up in June, offering a slight glimmer of hope for policymakers. The China CPI inflation registered a 0.1% year-on-year increase for June, snapping a four-month streak of declines, though it dipped 0.1% month-on-month. According to the NBS, this rebound is largely attributed to the government’s pro-growth fiscal and monetary stimulus packages aimed at boosting domestic consumption.

A significant factor was the recovery in prices of broad industrial consumer goods, which saw their year-on-year decline narrow. Crucially, core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy prices) continued its upward trend, reaching 0.7%, marking a nearly 14-month high and suggesting some underlying improvement in demand.

Specific categories contributing to the rise included daily necessities (up 0.8% year-on-year) and clothing prices (up 0.1% year-on-year). Even prices for gold and platinum jewellery saw significant increases, reflecting a shift in consumer spending patterns.

PPI’s Prolonged Deflation: A Deep-Seated Challenge

In stark contrast to the consumer side, China’s PPI continued its prolonged deflationary trend, dropping 3.6% year-on-year in June. This decline widened from May’s 3.3% fall and marks the 33rd consecutive month of contraction at the factory gate, representing the steepest fall since July 2023. On a month-on-month basis, the PPI decreased by 0.4%.

This sustained deflation at the industrial level is primarily driven by subdued domestic demand and cautious consumer confidence. Analysts and the NBS point to persistent industrial overcapacity, which has led to fierce “price wars” across various sectors as manufacturers compete for limited demand.

Additionally, lower energy prices, partly due to the growth of solar, wind, and hydropower, have reduced power generation costs. Pressure on export-reliant industries from slowing global trade and rising protectionism further exacerbates the decline.

The implication of this deep PPI deflation is a squeeze on corporate profits, potentially leading to reduced investment, employment, and a broader drag on economic growth.

Divergent Trends and Economic Implications

The simultaneous marginal rise in CPI and prolonged shrinkage in PPI presents a complex paradox for China’s economic management. While a positive CPI is a welcome sign for consumption and suggests that stimulus efforts are having some effect on household spending, the deep PPI deflation indicates that manufacturers are struggling to pass on costs.

This reflects fundamental weaknesses in industrial demand and highlights the challenge of overcapacity. The Chinese government continues to roll out efforts to stimulate the economy, including consumer goods trade-in policies and e-commerce promotions aimed at boosting domestic consumption.

However, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) faces a delicate policy dilemma: how to stimulate demand without exacerbating industrial overcapacity or introducing new financial planning. This ongoing factory-gate deflation in China could, however, have a broader impact, potentially helping to ease global inflation pressures, particularly for commodity prices, as China exports its excess supply at lower costs.

Outlook and Policy Outlook

While the marginal CPI rise offers a glimmer of hope for a demand recovery, the prolonged China PPI shrinkage signals that the Chinese economy is far from a robust and balanced recovery. The underlying issues of weak industrial demand and overcapacity remain significant headwinds.

The focus for policymakers will continue to be on strengthening domestic demand, addressing industrial overcapacity through structural reforms, and fostering a more balanced economic structure to ensure sustainable growth and alleviate persistent deflationary pressures. For expert analysis on China’s economic outlook and policy challenges, consider reports from the Council on Foreign Relations.

July 9, 2025