My blog

Category: News

  • Asian Stocks Dip After CPI Data While Tech Gains: Markets Wrap

    Asian Stocks Dip After CPI Data While Tech Gains: Markets Wrap

    TOKYO/HONG KONG: Asian stock markets were mixed Thursday as investors tried to digest the latest US inflation data and navigate shifting trade policies while technology companies pushed higher on Wall Street.

    Particularly in the semiconductor sector, for pockets of optimism. Explore the latest market movements as Asian stocks dip after CPI data while tech gains: markets wrap, while tech stocks gain traction. Get the full analysis in our market.

    CPI Data Takes Wind Out of Rate Cut Bets, Pharma’s Dropание

    By and large, Asian shares inched down as traders adjusted the degree of interest rate cuts that the Federal Reserve would make. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) minus volatile food and energy categories rose 0.2% from May – a modest figure, but one that provided a sign that some US companies are raising their prices to counter cost pressures due to new tariffs.

    “While any tariff-induced jump to inflation is expected to be temporary, more higher tariffs being imposed means the Fed should still refrain from raising interest rates for a few months at least,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.

    The cautious outlook encouraged traders to chip away at the odds of multiple Fed rate cuts this year, with the likelihood of a September cut now barely better than a coin flip, less than a 20% chance of two rate cuts this year. These revised policy bets typically bear down on riskier assets in Asia.

    In a similar sector-specific drag, Asian pharma stocks fell following renewed threats by US President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals by the end of the month.

    (Tech Outperforms as Chip Export Expectation Lifts Seoul)

    Tech stocks across Asia, in turn, bucked the broader market decline, supported by favourable developments in the semiconductor sector. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong added 0.3 per cent, largely on the back of tech companies.

    One big catalyst was word that US chip behemoth NVIDIA has received assurances from the US government that it will be able to resume exporting its H20 artificial intelligence accelerator chips to China.

    This radical shift from an earlier position held by the Trump administration is considered quite bullish for the AI semiconductor supply chain and general US-China relations, especially when the two sides are negotiating levels of tariff amounts, which is a very positive development.

    Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), a critical NVIDIA partner and one of the largest global manufacturers of chips, TSMC, TSMC, Copper Tubes, TYO, 2330 c1, rose as much as 1.8% in Taipei after a media report suggested the company intends to build a second chip plant in Japan to diversify its production, including for chips used in the automotive sector.

    South Korean tech companies including Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK hynix (000660.KS) are also riding the wave, as Samsung Electronics ended 1.57% higher on Monday, a sign of broader optimism across the semiconductor sector.

    Regional Performance Snapshot

    Japan’s Topix was little changed as the Nikkei 225 edged 0.58% higher on July 15, supported by tech advances amid broader market wariness.

    • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.8 per cent, with the broader index weighed down by inflation worries.
    • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.3 per cent, boosted by its tech component. Chinese mainland markets, including the Shanghai Composite, fell slightly, down 0.1%.
    • South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.73% as broader worries about the economy overwhelmed technology sector optimism for the overall index.

    Meanwhile the Japanese yen was 0.2% weaker versus the dollar, close to levels not seen since April, as the market considered the possibility of divergent monetary policy stances in the US and Japan. Gold, another traditional safe haven, nudged higher.

    As global financial markets grapple with the prospect of inflation, interest rate assumptions and the changing world of trade, the gap between general market sentiment and the success of AI-powered tech stocks illustrates the themes dominating investment strategy decisions in mid-2025.

  • US Tariffs Projected to Slow Global Economy and Insurance Premium Growth: Swiss Re

    US Tariffs Projected to Slow Global Economy and Insurance Premium Growth: Swiss Re

    Swiss Re Institute predicts that a potential impact of rising US tariff policy is slower global economic growth. The reinsurance colossus’ most recent “World Insurance sigma” report, published July 9, 2025 says these protectionist steps will not only hinder global GDP expansion but will also inhibit insurance premium growth internationally.

    Explore how US tariffs are set to impact the global economy and insurance premium growth, as analyzed by Swiss Re. Stay informed on key economic trends.

    Tariffs to Trigger “Stagflationary Shock”

    The global average rate (real GDP growth) is expected to slow to 2.3% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, having stood at 2.8% in 2024. This slowdown has been primarily caused by the widening US tariff policy which is causing a ‘stagflationary shock’ to the US, and by extension the broader global economy, and is designed to obliterate policy uncertainty worldwide, the report states.

    Jérôme Haegeli, Swiss Re’s Group Chief Economist, pointed to the short-term effect. “US consumers will be the most affected by US’ tariff policy and cut their consumption because of increased prices. This will in turn bear down on US growth which is largely driven by household consumption.” Swiss Re expects a slowdown in US GDP growth to just 1.5% in 2025 after 2.8% in 2024.

    “Additional tariffs would lead to structurally higher inflation in the United States” as supply chains become less efficient and domestic industries face reduced competition from other countries, the report said. This mix of weaker growth and accelerating prices creates a thorny new world for businesses and consumers.

    Insurance Premium Growth to Halve

    There’s to be a ripple effect from a lightened global growth and increased uncertainty, and the insurance sector like no other will suffer. Global insurance premium development will slow down considerably to 2% in 2025, about half of the 5.2% seen in 2024, according to projections by the Swiss Re Institute. In 2026, a low partial recovery to 2.3% is expected.

    Premium growth down in both life and non-life segments:

    Nonlife growth of premiums is forecast to fall to 2.6% in 2025 from 4.7% in 2024 as competition in personal lines and softening market in some commercial lines.

    The pace of growth in life insurance, in particular, will cool even more sharply, with premiums rising 1% in 2025, down from a 6.1% increase in 2024 — higher interest rates are set to moderate.

    US tariff policy is another step toward increasing market fragmentation longer-term, which would decrease insurance affordability and availability, and thereby global risk resilience, Haegeli cautioned.

    Trade barriers potentially leading to higher claims costs for insurers and supply chain disruptions, and cross-border flow of capital restrictions on reinsurers that may lead to capital allocation inefficiencies and higher capital costs and, ultimately, higher insurance pricing, are cited in the report.

    Uneven Impacts and Emerging Opportunities

    While the tone is in general cautious, the report states that the impact of tariffs on the insurance sector is likely to depend on geographic regions and lines of business.

    • US Motor Physical Damage This insurance sector is anticipated to bear the brunt of the tariff rise with auto parts and new/used cars prices surging and hence higher claims severity. Swiss Re predicts US motor damage repair and replacement costs will rise by 3.8% in 2025.
    • Our commercial property and homeowner and engineering lines in the US could also experience an increase in claims severity coming from higher costs for the intermediate goods, machinery, and commodities.
    • Tariffs outside the US are usually thought to be more disinflationary and could reduce claims pressure.
    • But the added uncertainty and economic disruption could also present opportunities, and credit and surety insurance that guard against economic disruption might be in higher demand. Alives could affect marine insurance as well, given changes to trade routes and supply chain realignments.

    Notwithstanding the decline in premium growth, Swiss Re says that the overall profitability position of the global insurance industry remains robust, benefiting principally from ongoing investment income gains.

    Yet the report is a stark reminder of how international trade policies and protectionism can have such widespread economic implications for wider global growth and important sectors, such as insurance.

  • Challenger to FICO Credit Scores Gets Green Light for Use in Mortgages

    Challenger to FICO Credit Scores Gets Green Light for Use in Mortgages

    There’s a shake-up occurring in the U.S. mortgage market, and it’s regarding something you might not think about very often — credit scores. A large portion of home loans are being paid with money from investors.

    Described by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) on July 8, 2025, and supported by the European Parliament on July 10, 2025, the landmark decision looks to spur competition, lower costs for consumers and push homeownership opportunities to millions of Americans.

    The implications of a new credit score alternative gaining approval for mortgages. Learn how this challenger to FICO could benefit borrowers.

    Breaking FICO’s Monopoly

    FICO (FICO) scores have long been the gold standard for home mortgages bought and sold by government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which back most home loans in the US. With the acceptance of VantageScore 4.0, the monopoly to be the only credit score in town has been shattered, welcoming the beginning of a new era of competition in the credit scoring environment.

    FHFA director William J. Pulte (Bill Pulte) made this announcement on social media, writing in a post on his official page that “Effective immediately,” lenders working with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can opt to use VantageScore 4.0. He stressed that this action is in line with President Donald Trump’s “landslide mandate to decrease costs” and raise competition.

    What VantageScore 4.0 Offers

    VantageScore 4.0, created by the three major credit bureaus (Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion), includes some important changes that should amplify the number of people benefiting from them:

    • Inclusion for “Thin Files”: One of the biggest benefits of VantageScore 4.0 is that it can score more consumers, especially people with little credit history, or “thin files”. It does so by including additional data points like rental payments, utilities, and telecom payments in the mix. What that means is that timely payments for these vital services can now be used to create or enhance a borrower’s credit profile for a mortgage. It’s a game-changer for people who don’t have traditional plastic credit cards or long loan histories.
    • Trended Data Analysis: Instead of providing a “snapshot” of credit at a moment in time, like old FICO models, VantageScore 4.0 uses “trended data”. This lets lenders view trends in a consumer’s financial planning over time, including whether credit card balances are being reduced consistently or minimum payments are made most of the time. This “video” of credit history has the potential to paint a much richer risk assessment.
    • Potential Cost Reductions: Introducing competition for the purchase of credit scores likely will reduce licensing fees for credit scores, lowering costs for lenders and potentially benefiting consumers with lower origination fees or interest rates.

    Impact on Homebuyers and Lenders

    The immediate impact is significant. VantageScore also says that its use would help an additional 4.7 million potential homebuyers, including first-time buyers, people of colour and those with an income on the low end of the scale, who cannot get a mortgage using scores supplied by the three national credit bureaus.

    For lenders, it means added flexibility and possibly less expensive access to credit reports, as the tri-merge (three-bureau) infrastructure is staying in place, making for a simpler move over. The move is being widely cheered by housing advocates and industry participants like the National Association of Realtors (NAR) for putting more credit options in the hands of consumers and burning off some sluggish competition.

    But some experts warn that lenders could still take a more cautionary approach with borrowers who don’t have a traditional credit history, perhaps leading to slightly wider interest rates in today’s market. But certainly, this is a big step toward modernizing the U.S. mortgage market, making homeownership more accessible for a wider swathe of the population.

    The FHFA’s move implements the 2018 Credit Score Competition Act — signed into law by then-President Trump — delivering on a long-time goal of modernizing the credit scoring system.

  • Japan bond yields hit multi-decade high as fiscal fears mount ahead of election

    Japan bond yields hit multi-decade high as fiscal fears mount ahead of election

    JGB yields have climbed to multi-decade geographical peaks, with the 10-year benchmark yielding more than 1.595% on Tuesday, July 15th, 2025, a level not seen since just before Halloween, October 2008.

    Japan’s bond yields reach multi-decade highs amid rising fiscal concerns ahead of the upcoming election. Discover the implications for investors and the economy.

    The spike in yields, especially on the far end of the curve, is a reflection of growing investor concern over Japan’s fiscal state and the prospects for additional government spending as preparation for the pivotal Upper House election on Sunday, July 20, heightens.

    Record Highs and Market Instability

    The 30-year JGB yield, a bellwether for long-term fiscal health, surged to an all-time 3.195% on Tuesday, and the 20-year yield rose to 2.65%, its highest since November 1999.

    The rapid movement reflects rising strains in a Japanese government bond market that has been unusually stable in the past, anchored by the BoJ’s ultra-accommodative monetary policy. The rapid rise in yields is a troubling one for a country with the largest public debt-to-GDP ratio in the developed world, which comes in at around 250%.

    Although the majority of Japan’s debt is held at home, any slackening in appetite from institutional buyers, who fund themselves at a spread over the JGB market, along with the BoJ’s ongoing gradual reduction of bond purchases, is increasing the vulnerability of the market.

    Fears About the Economy Before the Election

    The approaching race for the Upper House is a big factor behind the bond market sell-off. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior coalition partner Komeito are facing a difficult challenge, with local polls indicating they will struggle to win a majority in the chamber.

    The possibility of a weakened ruling coalition or political continuity is stoking fears about continued budget generosity. Opposition parties, riding the wave of platforms that promise to tackle surging living costs, are pushing for steps like consumption tax advisory reductions. Such policies, although popular with voters, would also widen the fiscal deficit, making Japan’s already stretched finances even worse.

    “As the volume is building around noise going into more fiscal spending, we took an underweight on Japan in general,” said Ales Koutny, head of international rates at Vanguard, speaking to the UK bond market’s headaches in recent years.

    BoJ’s Delicate Balancing Act

    The Bank of Japan is in a ticklish situation. Following its unconventional yield curve control (YCC) policy exit and, now, slow interest rate hikes (the cash rate sits at 0.5%), the central bank targets a sustained 2% inflation.

    But ramped-up fiscal spending could unravel all of this and leave the BoJ with little choice but to engineer monetary tightening faster than the pace most households and firms would be happy with. Even though the Ministry of Finance tried to cool things down by stating that it intended to cut 20-, 30- and 40-year debt sales to help mend supply-demand imbalances, the real issue is fiscal.

    “If a demand-less market continues and if investors see no rate hikes within this fiscal year, JGB volatility will go up, especially in the long end,” said Kentaro Hatono, a fund manager at Asset Management One.

    Everything now depends on the result of Sunday’s election. A major defeat for the ruling coalition may lead to another sell-off in super-long JGBs as investors bet on a massively swollen government deficit.

    The surge in yields, which have been rising steadily since the summer, has the potential to raise the cost of corporate loans and mortgages, in turn dampening domestic economic growth. Japan’s bond market readies for a volatile phase, with the election set to determine its fiscal course for years.

  • Futures Rise on Nvidia Chip Plan, China GDP Beats: Markets Wrap

    Futures Rise on Nvidia Chip Plan, China GDP Beats: Markets Wrap

    It’s today, July 15, 2025. Stock futures, by the way, are up early in the morning on economic growth out of China, which is coming in better than expected, and renewed optimism about strategic manoeuvres for NVIDIA in China.

    Persisting concerns over the next round of US inflation figures and the ongoing, expanding repercussions of US tariff policies on global trade are taking the edge off the positive push.

    NVIDIA’s China Plan Offers a Glimmer in Technology’s Gathering Gloom

    Technology stocks, particularly in semiconductors, are being actively bid in pre-market as a major change to NVIDIA’s China plans is released. The AI chip giant said on Tuesday that it will resume sales to China after the US government committed to grant licences. In accordance with U.S. export law (ALUMINIUM RAM HERE WE COME), the H20 chip is a downgraded (crippled) edition specifically for the Chinese market.

    On top of that, NVIDIA announced a new RTX Pro GPU model optimised for AI use in logistics and smart factories and is optimised for Chinese regulatory requirements. As does Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang visiting with US and Chinese officials to promote AI cooperation, the ANT says. “This action will serve as crucial support in ensuring Nvidia’s leading position in the Chinese market,” the ANT says. The news also helps clear up some concern among investors over how export restrictions might affect NVIDIA’s earnings, with this development setting up a bright outlook not just for the company but for the broader tech industry.

    China’s Q2 GDP Beats Forecasts

    Bullish sentiment also was lifted by a stronger-than-expected report on China’s economy in the second quarter. Official figures for China showed the country’s gross domestic product was up 5.2 per cent from the 2024 period during the second quarter, April through June. While it surpassed analysts’ predictions of a 5.1 per cent increase, it suggested resilience despite lingering domestic challenges and international trade pressures.

    Robust exports were partly to blame for the better-than-forecast showing, with Chinese firms reputedly front-loading shipments to get ahead of looming US tariff cut-off dates. The Q2 data is a welcome pick-up in global risk sentiment, particularly in emerging markets which are vulnerable to the fortunes of the Chinese economy, although analysts warn the second half of the year could see a slowdown as domestic demand weakens and the real estate sector has problems.

    Shadows Linger: Tariff & US Inflation A lack thereof of Uncertainty

    “The global markets are still vacillating, waiting with bated breath for the release of the US CPI report for June 2025 tomorrow, bad news from China and the good from NVIDIA notwithstanding,” Wadhwa said. As inflation figures are likely to play a crucial role in future decision-making on interest rates at the Federal Reserve, that data is causing an outsized response from investors. The dollar, bonds and stocks could all become volatile if there is a large deviation from expectations.

    Adding to the uncertainty are U.S. policies of tariffs on the rise. President Donald Trump’s administration stepped up trade tensions by sending warning letters on the tariffs to more than 20 countries and free trade zones, including some of foes and closest allies.

    Saxony’s Economy Minister Martin Dulig warned of “serious negative effects for the auto industry” if bilateral trade pacts could not be reached by August 1, when 20%-50% tariffs would be introduced. Analysts forecast that this will hit the US economy with a “stagflationary shock”, pushing up inflation at home and triggering havoc across global supply chains. The future of global investment and trade is also complicated by the potential for retaliatory measures.

    Though tech optimism and China’s surprising economic resilience are providing some tailwinds to the trading day, investors are finding comfort from broader concerns about U.S. inflation and the fickle nature of global trade policy.

  • Cybersecurity Threats Evolve, E-Waste Accumulates, and Forest Protection Gains Traction

    Cybersecurity Threats Evolve, E-Waste Accumulates, and Forest Protection Gains Traction

    In mid-2025, the world is characterised by a fluid mix of pressing challenges and promising advances on the most critical environmental and digital fronts. Cybersecurity menaces are becoming more and more advanced, supported by artificial intelligence, and the international e-waste is still a huge environmental and health burden.

    Yet, in the face of these threats, there has been a resurgence around the world of movements to protect and restore forests through creative means.

    Cybersecurity Threats: AI’s changing landscape of dual use

    Description: The cyberspace for 2025 is characterised by more sophisticated and varied threats. Ransomware attacks continue to be both a common and catastrophic scourge, with miscreants going so far as “double extortion” in many cases, in which data is not just encrypted but also threatened with exposure.

    There is a significant increase in the cyber warfare and espionage efforts of nation-state actors, aimed at critical infrastructure and sensitive data with increasing accuracy.

    One concern is the double edge of AI. AI is being used by defenders to automate threat detection and analyse large data sets, trying to improve user identification through behavioural biometrics, but also being weaponised by attackers.

    Theoretically, AI malware will be able to better adjust to its environment, avoid old forms of defence against old techniques, and attack systems in more precise ways.

    Generative AI is allowing more realistic phishing campaigns and social engineering tactics which make it more difficult for individuals to tell if content is malicious. “While these findings are startling, to say the least, they bring to light the reality that AI and ML are poised for opening up new frontiers in both security protection tools and in threats to these tools,” said Dr. Srinivas Mukkamala, co-founder and CEO at RiskSense.

    “The issue for organisations is to be agile in continually adjusting their defences to keep up with these rapidly evolving attacks, with a better focus on proactive measures, multi-factor authentication, security awareness training, and other battles that can’t be fought with AI.”

    Storage, it is also a small and efficient use of space!

    The world is facing an ever-increasing e-waste crisis. E-waste around the world In 2025, the amount of global e-waste will surpass 62 million tonnes per year, revealing a need for more economic tools to stimulate the market investment strategies for new devices and lower the cost.

    Despite increasing awareness, just around 22-25% of this e-waste is cleared through the proper recyclers. The vast majority is frequently disposed of in uncontrolled dumps or with informal waste-pickers, and the hazardous substances it contains – such as lead, mercury and cadmium – can cause serious health and environmental problems.

    The rise of wearable AI devices, 5G device connectivity, and IoT technology advancements continue in course to spur e-waste expansion. The brunt of the problem falls on developing countries that may be importing relatively high volumes of second-hand electronics but that don’t have the infrastructure, regulation and resources in place to handle it and recycle it safely.

    Artisanal dismantling and recycling in these areas, effectively employing open burning and acid leaching, emit hazardous pollutants into the air, soil and water, posing direct threats to human health and local ecosystems. Reversing this trend calls for greater international cooperation, enhanced formal recycling capacity and the roll-out of extended producer responsibility (EPR) programmes on a global scale.

    Forest Guarding: Some Successful New Initiatives

    Into this mix, there’s an increasing global commitment to protect and conserve forests. REAFFORESTATION, REFORESTRY AND CONSERVATION Efforts to reforest and conserve are increasingly taking hold around the world owing to increased awareness of the importance of forests to climate, biodiversity and the livelihoods of millions of people.

    The focus is on an increase in forest and tree cover and improved quality of degraded forests and important ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and conservation of water. A lot of programmes have a strong focus on local engagement in forest protection, as part of the idea that local involvement is important for lasting results. Modern technology such as remote sensing, GPS and GIS is increasingly being used to observe and monitor forest fires in real-time and is enabling faster and more effective responses.

    In addition, there is added emphasis on agroforestry, which encourages farmers to plant trees as part of their farming systems for their ability to withstand the climate, provide income and improve soil health. Efforts are also underway to enhance local livelihoods through sustainable forest-based enterprises. As climate change challenges continue to mount, this rising global collaboration around this precious natural resource is a promising development in a world large in scope but small in scale.

  • US House to Vote on Major Crypto Bills, Mortgage Rates Remain High

    US House to Vote on Major Crypto Bills, Mortgage Rates Remain High

    The US House is headed for key “Crypto Week” from today, July 14, 2025, with historic votes planned on a number of bills for digital asset legislation. This regulatory push is the result of attempts to implement clearer regulations for the developing crypto industry.

    At the same time, U.S. home buyers continue to see stubbornly high mortgage rates that are making homes less affordable and discouraging the home buying process.

    House’s ‘Crypto Week’ Begins

    After years in which the crypto industry has called for clarity from regulators, the House is now preparing to take major steps. Members of Congress are set to vote on three pieces of legislation:

    • Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act): This legislation would create a path for digital assets to be offered and sold as securities and identify how these assets are treated under securities law and is also meant to resolve conflicts between the SEC and the CFTC. This bill has been reported by both the House Financial Services Committee and the House Agriculture Committee with overwhelming bipartisan support.
    • Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act): The GENIUS Act would establish the first federal statutory framework for payment stablecoins and would require payment stablecoins to be one-to-one backed by cash. This bill has already been approved overwhelmingly by the Senate, and House passage would send it directly to the desk of President Donald Trump, who might sign the first large crypto law into effect.
    • The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act: This bill would prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC), amid worries from certain lawmakers about privacy and potential government abuse.

    The “Crypto Week” schedule reflects a desire among many in Washington D.C. to move forward with digital assets and establish the U.S. as a global leader in financial technology, an effort that President Trump is personally directing. Market participants are watching these votes closely for a more favourable and predictable environment to conduct a crypto business or invest in one.

    Hotel Loans: Soness At Hotel Maturities Return – Mortgage Rates Still Near Highs

    Meantime, the U.S. housing market faces high borrowing costs. Average rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased slightly this week to 6.72 per cent, according to Freddie Mac data released on July 10, 2025, in what had been a five-week string of loosening. The average on the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage increased to 5.86%.

    These stubbornly high levels — they’ve largely been between 6.5% and 7% for much of 2025 — are more a function of external economic conditions, such as the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy setting and the movement of the 10-year Treasury yield. Yet despite some hopes for interest rate cutbacks later in the year, most economists say mortgage rates are likely to stay in the 6% to 7% range in the coming months unless there’s a dramatic change in inflation or economic reports.

    The higher borrowing costs remain a major headwind for potential buyers, in particular for first-time buyers, and have led to a sales downturn in the housing market that commenced in 2022. There is plenty of demand for housing, but plenty of obstacles, too, both in the form of high interest rates and high home prices, which are keeping many on the sidelines. Refinance activity also has been tepid, with rates not low enough compared with the existing level of rates that many homeowners have.

  • Global Markets Brace for US Inflation Data and Tariff Impacts on July 14, 2025; India’s Financial Savings Decline

    Global Markets Brace for US Inflation Data and Tariff Impacts on July 14, 2025; India’s Financial Savings Decline

    Global financial markets wade into today, July 14, 2025, nervously awaiting a report on key US inflation data and struggling to understand the expanding ramifications of intensifying US tariff actions.

    Putting this building macroeconomic backdrop on a cautious stance broadly, across equities, bonds and currencies, the same is a concerning trend of falling household financial savings in India, as revealed by another report alongside.

    U.S. Inflation Data in Focus and Market Response

    US CPI for the month of June 2025 is reportedly out July 15. The official CPI report is due out for June 2025 tomorrow, but early signs and positioning are making news today. The May 2025 CPI press release – released on June 11 – indicated headline inflation of 2.4% year over year and core CPI — excluding food and energy — of 2.8%.

    On the horse-race front, analysts are eagerly awaiting the June numbers, which some predictions suggest may nudge up a bit. Traders are more attuned than usual to surprises in inflation readings because it will shape the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

    Inflation ticking higher than expected would compound worries about a Fed that will prioritise keeping rates higher for longer, keeping a lid on equities and boosting the dollar. On the flipside, a softer inflation print would give some respite and hopes of an earlier interest rate cut towards the later part of the year.

    The popping of the precious metals with gold prices oscillating is a paying reflection of the volatility that already exists.

    The collateral damage of U.S. tariffs

    Adding to the inflation picture is the Trump administration’s increasingly protectionist US tariff policy. Added to that, the past few days have brought a level of trade antagonism not seen in some time: new tariff warning letters dispatched to more than 20 countries, including major economic partners such as Japan, South Korea, Mexico and the European Union.

    Tariffs between 20% and 50% are scheduled to be imposed on August 1, 2025, if certain bilateral trade agreements are not in place. Most analysts also agree that the tariffs will instead be a “stagflationary shock” to the US economy, which means that the US consumer will get hit most as they pay more for imported goods.

    In its July 9, 2025 report, the Swiss Re Institute predicted that US tariffs would suppress global GDP growth to 2.3 per cent in 2025 from 2.8 per cent in 2024. Policy uncertainty alone in Europe is likely to keep economic activity sluggish.

    The tariffs also threaten to dislocate global supply chains, increase long-term inflation and undermine confidence in the US as a “safe haven” for global capital. The prospects of counter-tariffs by affected countries further compound the instability, making matters more difficult for global trade and investment Strategies.

    India’s Declining Financial Savings

    India’s own domestic economic battle is playing out against this complicated global backdrop. India’s household financial savings dropped for the third consecutive year to 18.1 per cent of GDP in FY24, CareEdge Ratings said in a report released on June 15, 2025.

    This is down from 32.2% during FY15 and is in part the result of an increase in household financial liabilities that have almost doubled during the past 10 years, reaching 6.2% of GDP as households continue to use credit to meet their consumption needs.”

    Though the Reserve Bank of India maintains a high interest rate (8.05% for July–December 2025) on Floating Rate Savings Bonds and the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) has already credited an 8.25% interest for FY25, the overall investment trend in household savings is a worry. Such a decrease in remittances could affect the availability of internal capital for investment and even the long-term stability of the economy.

    The immediate consequences of US economic policies and the continued threat posed by inflation, trade protectionism and other global challenges, as they play out in international markets, are being felt at home in economies like India, and absorption of these changes is becoming increasingly complex.

  • Crypto Market Surges on July 14, 2025: Bitcoin Breaks $121K, Metaplanet and Whales Make Major Acquisitions

    Crypto Market Surges on July 14, 2025: Bitcoin Breaks $121K, Metaplanet and Whales Make Major Acquisitions

    Today, July 14, 2025, the cryptocurrency market is seeing some massive upward action, as Bitcoin (BTC) has blown past an all-time high into what appears to be entirely new territory, setting foot beyond the $120,000 threshold and significantly overshooting the $121,000 mark.

    This rally is driven by an intoxicating combination of institutions buying, speculation on U.S. regulatory progress, and high-profile corporate and whale buys.

    Bitcoin’s Historic Ascent

    Bitcoin’s price jumped as high as $122,600 during Asian trading hours on Tuesday and reached a historic high for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. This extraordinary rally is a follow-up to an intense bullish trend that has seen BTC’s market cap at around $2.38 trillion.

    The price is not the only thing that analysts are watching as a critical support; now that $120,000 has had significant price action maintaining above the level, the door to $135-140k is looking plausible in the months ahead.

    The reason behind the push seems to be the extreme demand for Bitcoin ETFs. Just last week, Bitcoin ETFs had their biggest-ever single-day inflow of 2025, with a massive influx of $1.18 billion in new investments.

    The arrival of institutional capital is evidence of increasing global acceptance and trust in Bitcoin as a long-term Investment Strategies . “trenders “We believe that bitcoin’s ascent is attributed to longer-term institutional holders driving it, and it’s going to $125,000 over the next month or two,” BTSE Chief Operating Officer Jeff Mei said.

    Corporate Aggregation: The Pole is taken by Metaplanet

    Adding to the institutional appetite, the Japanese hotel operator and investment firm Metaplanet disclosed a major new purchase of Bitcoin today. It bought the extra 797 BTC for $93.6 million at an average price of about $117,451 per Bitcoin.

    The latest move takes Metaplanet’s total stash of bitcoins to 16,352 coins and solidifies its position as the fifth-largest public company holder of the cryptocurrency, behind heavyweights such as MicroStrategy. Metaplanet’s aggressive acquisition strategy saw the company’s bitcoin holdings rise from less than 4,000 BTC in March to over 15,500 BTC in July, which reflects a growing trend of corporations integrating bitcoin into their treasury policies.

    This is not just confidence in the value of Bitcoin long-term but also what helps fuel the perception of scarcity as more coins are removed from the open market.

    “Whale” Activity and Regulatory Optimism

    Aside from corporate purchases, on-chain data shows large individual holders, or “whales”, have been accumulating. These large buy-ins continue to encourage bullishness and conviction by whales about the direction of Bitcoin’s price action in the future.

    Contributing to the favourable market sentiment is the build-up to the forthcoming “Crypto Week” taking place in Washington D.C., where the U.S. House of Representatives plans to discuss a string of crypto-related bills.

    The legislative efforts to provide legal clarity for digital asset companies and to provide a regulatory regime for stablecoins are broadly viewed as the first steps in the direction of increased clarity and acceptance for the crypto industry. What’s more, U.S. President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto attitude has added to the positive sentiment.

    This isn’t all about Bitcoin, though. Other large cryptocurrencies, such as Ether (Ethereum), have also experienced huge price jumps, and Ether reached a five-month high of $3,048.23, helping to propel a broader surge in digital asset prices.

    With the cryptosphere still moving north, investors and market observers are also watching the horizon for more institutional cues and regulatory action that could have a say in the markets’ trajectory for the rest of 2025.

  • New SEC regulations require stricter ESG disclosures, impacting fund classifications

    New SEC regulations require stricter ESG disclosures, impacting fund classifications

    ESG Investing Is Changing for Programmes Aimed at changing American businesses and business practices Nowhere is that change more apparent than in the world of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) investing in the United States.

    Adopted on July 10, 2025, these regulations are designed to provide transparency and to give investors more consistent and emphasized information on how ESG-focused funds are classified and marketed.

    The Push for Greater Transparency

    For years, the rapid rise of ESG investing has been dogged by worries of “greenwashing” – where funds are marketed as environmentally or socially responsible while not actually incorporating ESG factors into their investment strategies.

    The SEC’s new rules respond to these developments and aim to codify and enhance the disclosures of investment funds that allege to take ESG considerations into account.

    At the heart of the new rules is a requirement for enhanced and standardized disclosure on the integration of ESG factors into a fund’s investment process, including the approach to the fund’s investment objectives, strategies and principal risks.

    Funds will now have to explain how they define and measure ESG factors, which data sources they use and how they apply this understanding in investment decisions. The aim of such a measure is to enable investors to make better-informed decisions so that their investments truly reflect their sustainability preferences.

    Redefining ESG Fund Classifications

    One of the most important parts of the new SEC rules is the way it could change how ESG funds are categorised and viewed. The rules put in place more clearly delineatethe various types of ESG funds:

    “Integration Funds” are new challenges about how they consider ESG factors vis-à-vis all other material factors in their investment process.

    While “ESG-Focused Funds” (those that view ESG as a primary investment strategy) will be subject to more prescriptive guidance, including, where possible, measurable indicators about how such funds are incorporating ESG as part of investment processes. These might be specific environmental metrics (like carbon footprint), social metrics (like diversity statistics), or governance metrics (like board independence).

    Impact Funds (i.e., funds that seek to achieve specific, measurable ESG outcomes alongside returns) – whose disclosure obligations should be much stronger (i.e., providing full disclosure of their impact objectives, the methods by which their impacts are measured and periodic updates on actual impact).

    Analysts expect this tiered approach to prompt a rethink from many fund managers about their existing ESG claims and perhaps result in some existing funds being reclassified to fit under the stricter definitions. Funds unable to comply with the additional disclosure required for greater ESG categories could avoid making higher ESG claims or work towards deeper ESG integration.

    For Investors and Fund Managers

    The new rules offer a quantum leap in the clarity and comparability of ESG products, to the benefit of investors. They will be in a stronger position to tell the truly ESG-oriented funds from those that pay mere lip service to ESG. This greater visibility should help increase confidence in the market for ESG investment.

    For fund managers, the new standards require a full review of your current ESG policies and procedures, marketing materials and how data is captured internally. Compliance will necessitate significant investment in resources for data management, reporting, and knowledge in ESG analysis.

    Though difficult in the short run, it is in the long term likely to lead to truer and stronger ESG integration across the industry, which should help to buttress the credibility and long-term health of ESG investing. The S.E.C.’s action represents a sign of maturity for the E.S.G. market, which has been moving beyond broad claims to deliver impacts that can be measured and held to account.